European tourism demonstrated strong resilience in the last quarter of 2024 despite economic pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, adverse weather conditions and evolving consumer behavior. The European Travel Commission’s (ETC) “European Tourism Trends & Prospects” Q4 2024 report showcases a rise of 6.3 percent in foreign arrivals over 2019 levels and a rise of 6.7 percent compared to 2023. Overnight stays have also grown by 5.9 percent above 2019 and 4.8 percent year-on-year.
While travel performance has remained strong, the report indicates that consumers are increasingly opting for value-for-money destinations. This is likely due to higher travel costs caused by elevated service inflation and increased demand for travel. The latest estimate suggests that in 2024, tourists spent 7.8 percent more across Europe than in 2023, equating to €705 billion.
Tourism performance is stronger across both arrivals and overnights compared to the previous quarter, as well, suggesting travel in the shoulder season (September-October) and into the winter period remained robust. This trend aligns with growing consumer preference for value-for-money travel, as these months typically offer lower prices. Additionally, extreme summer temperatures in some sub-regions and fewer travelers may have influenced travel patterns.
Following a strong summer period, several Southern and Mediterranean destinations saw slower performance in Q4, including Portugal, Serbia, Greece and Montenegro. Serbia, Portugal and Greece saw weakened arrivals growth since Q3, but are still up considerably on 2019, by 28.9 percent, 17.8 percent and 13.7 percent, respectively. However, some Southern and Mediterranean destinations managed to buck this trend, including Italy, with arrivals up 5.9 percent and overnight stays 10 percent ahead of 2019 figures.
Iceland, on the other hand, recorded a 14 percent increase in arrivals over 2019 in Q4, making it the fastest-growing winter tourism destination.
Extreme weather events, including flooding, storms and snowfalls, impacted travel across Europe, leading to flight delays and cancelations in major hubs such as France, Germany, Spain and the U.K. Spain's province of Valencia was particularly affected by severe flooding, with arrivals growth slowing in November (4.2 percent) and December (-6.3 percent) following its strong performance in the rest of the year, when arrivals growth outpaced Spain as a whole.
Looking ahead, the recovery of long-haul travel is still lagging with final data for 2024 indicating it will remain 5 percent below 2019 levels. This is largely due to the slow recovery from Asia/Pacific, particularly China. Travel demand from this market has been mainly focused on regional trips, with fewer long-haul journeys, especially to Europe, due to limited connectivity and visa requirements. On average, arrivals from China to European destinations are 39.6 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
In contrast, U.S. transatlantic travel helped to sustain momentum during Europe’s post-pandemic recovery. However, uncertainty under the Trump administration grows as inflation risks could shrink disposable income, potentially reducing international travel. In Q4, 22 of 27 reporting destinations saw US arrivals surpass 2019 levels, led by Türkiye (+153 percent), Portugal (+91 percent), Lithuania (+67 percent) and Montenegro (+49 percent).
Source: ETC
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