It’s bleak news for U.S. travelers hoping to leave last weekend’s airline mayhem behind, according to the Trump administration.
Air travel this coming weekend could see significantly worsening delays and cancellations if the government shutdown continues, U.S. Department of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Tuesday—potentially beyond the 10% reductions in traffic the FAA plans to require airlines to make.
“I think we would see that significant disruption coming this next weekend, maybe as early as Friday,” Duffy said during a press conference at Chicago O’Hare International Airport.
Even if the House votes to approve a government spending measure Wednesday, it could be some time before air travel returns to normal, Duffy said, noting that “it depends on controllers coming back to work.”
If the spending bill does not pass, however, Duffy suggested airlines could even begin grounding planes should the shutdown—and associated air traffic control delays—drag on much longer.
“I think you’re going to have airlines that make serious calculations about whether they continue to fly, full stop,” Duffy said.
Several airline sources, who asked to remain anonymous, said they were not aware of any plans to ground aircraft.
Still, Duffy’s warning suggested a scenario similar to last weekend, when delays piled up and the number of cancellations outstripped the rate of operational reductions required by the FAA.
More than 22,000 flights were canceled or delayed last Saturday and Sunday, according to data from FlightAware. While the FAA required airlines to cut flights by 4% at the nation’s 40 busiest airports, the cancellation rate for the weekend ended up being more than twice that.
The FAA ordered airlines to increase the cancellation rate to 6% of flights starting Tuesday to alleviate the overstressed air traffic control system. The agency plans to raise the required cancellations to 8% on Thursday and 10% by Friday.
While that plan was implemented before news broke that a possible deal had been reached to end the shutdown, Duffy said Tuesday that once a spending bill is passed, the FAA will roll back the restrictions in phases based on staffing levels.
“We’re going to start taking it down to six [percent], maybe we’ll go to four, two, and get back to normal air travel,” he said.
Duffy also underscored that the cancellations are being required as a safety measure, pushing back against accusations that they were politically motivated.
“Having a system-wide reduction, where people and airlines can think through the cancellations—that’s far safer than seeing hotspots around the country with random cancellations and delays.”
Air traffic controllers, who are federal employees, have been working without pay for the shutdown, now in its 43rd day. Increasing numbers of controllers have called out sick during the shutdown to work second jobs or side gigs to make ends meet, while others have faced heavier workloads and growing stress and fatigue.
The Senate passed a spending bill Monday, and the House is scheduled to vote Wednesday.
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