The latest data from ForwardKeys has found that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused an immediate stall in flight bookings to Europe and within Russia domestically. In its second public analysis since the onset of the attack, ForwardKeys compared flight bookings in the week following the invasion, February 24 through March 2, to the previous seven days. Excluding Ukraine and Moldova, which closed their air space, and Russia and Belarus, which were subjected to flight bans and safety warnings, the destinations worst affected were generally those closest to the conflict. Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia all saw a 30 to 50 percent collapse in bookings. All the other European countries, except for Belgium, Iceland and Serbia, which saw single-digit drops, experienced a decline in bookings between 10 and 30 percent. Domestic flight bookings in Russia fell 49 percent.
Analysis by source market shows that intra-European air traffic was affected worse than transatlantic travel. Flight bookings within Europe fell 23 percent, whereas they fell 13 percent from the U.S.
The only European air corridor left open to Russia is via Serbia, which is now acting as a gateway. This is most clearly demonstrated by an immediate uplift in seat capacity between Russia and Serbia in March and by the profile of bookings. Seat capacity scheduled in the first week of March shows around 50 percent increase in available seats for flights from Russia to Serbia, compared to February 21 (before full scale military operations began). In addition, 60 percent more flight tickets were issued for travel from Russia to another destination via Serbia in the week immediately after the invasion, than there were in the whole of January. Also, in January, 85 percent of transfers from Russia via Serbia were to Montenegro; in the week after the invasion, the figure was 40 percent, as Serbia became a hub for onward travel to Cyprus, France, Switzerland, Italy and elsewhere.
Olivier Ponti, VP Insights, ForwardKeys, said in a press statement that “transatlantic travel and western European destinations have been less badly affected than I feared,” adding “travelers regard the rest of Europe (outside of Ukraine and Russia) as relatively safe.”
He continued “There is also a strong pent-up demand … However, these are early days in a global political and economic crisis; so, what happens to travel will certainly be affected by the progress of the war and the impact of sanctions.”
Source: ForwardKeys
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