TOURISE, in collaboration with Oxford Economics, has released a new white paper titled “Growth Amid Uncertainty: Opportunities and Risks on the Road to 2 Billion Global Travellers," unveiled during the inaugural TOURISE Summit. The publication presents key opportunities and risks that the industry will face in coming years as well as a framework to guide policymakers, destination leaders, and industry stakeholders in strengthening the tourism sector’s capacity to withstand global disruptions and foster long-term sustainability and resilience.
The white paper underscores the imperative of resilience as a foundational principle for tourism development in an era marked by geopolitical shifts, climate-related challenges, and evolving traveler expectations.
“Tourism has always been a force for connection and opportunity, but its true strength lies in its capacity to evolve and remain resilient. This white paper provides a clear direction for how the global tourism sector can navigate the years ahead, guiding us toward a future of sustainable growth and shared prosperity,” Ahmed Al-Khateeb, minister of tourism and chairman of TOURISE, said in a statement.
“It demonstrates how data-driven planning and forward-looking policy can help destinations manage growth responsibly, withstand shocks, and continue creating jobs and opportunities. As we move toward two billion travelers by 2030, our focus must be on building a tourism ecosystem that is resilient, inclusive, and prepared for the challenges and possibilities of a changing world,” he added.
Drawing on extensive data and economic modeling, the report identifies key trends shaping the future of travel and tourism. It highlights the growing importance of evidence-based decision-making and adaptive policy frameworks to ensure destinations remain competitive and inclusive.
“Resilience in tourism begins with clarity, which comes from hard-hitting data,” said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company. “This white paper provides a data-driven roadmap for navigating uncertainty, enabling destinations to make informed choices and invest with confidence.”
Among its findings, the report projects a significant increase in international arrivals, rising from 1.5 billion today to 2 billion by 2030, driven in part by changing traveler preferences, with a marked emphasis on experiential value over cost. Tourists are increasingly seeking immersive, culturally authentic experiences, contributing to longer stays and higher per-trip spending.
To accommodate this demand, destinations that proactively include strategies such as adopting open visa regimes, traveler-centric policies, and forward-looking infrastructure are projected to be best positioned to capture a forecasted 40 percent increase in global travel demand by 2030.
This joint initiative is part of TOURISE’s efforts to strengthen the tourism sector through data-driven and forward-looking strategies.
The full white paper can be downloaded at TOURISE.com.
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