Days after the United States repealed its COVID-19 testing requirement for inbound air travelers, the U.S. Travel Association released its full biannual forecast for travel through 2026—including both travel spending and volume—which projects that all segments of travel, despite rising inflation, will surge in the short term due to pent-up demand and consumer savings. Unfortunately, this is not expected to last, leading to slower growth in the later years of the forecast.
U.S. Travel estimates that $1.05 trillion (in 2019 dollars, adjusted for inflation) will be spent on travel in the United States in 2022, but this is still 10 percent below 2019 levels and 16 percent below where it should have been in 2022 if not for the pandemic. The table below reflects annual spending estimates, adjusted for inflation, through 2026:
Domestic leisure travel will continue to drive the overall U.S. travel industry’s recovery in the near term, though spending is projected to remain $46 billion below where it should have been in 2022 had the pandemic not occurred. International inbound travel, however, is making strides toward recovery, aided by the recent repeal of the inbound pre-departure testing requirement. The sector is projected to grow rapidly through the rest of 2022, and then grow at a slower pace in 2023-2026. A full recovery to pre-pandemic levels (volume and spending) is not expected until 2025.
U.S. Travel expects to next revise its biannual forecast in fall 2022.
Roger Dow’s Replacement Found
The next chapter of the U.S. Travel will be led by Geoff Freeman, who rejoins the association after nearly a decade first spent as president and CEO of the American Gaming Association and as the current president and CEO of the Consumer Brands Association. He will join U.S. Travel on September 1.
In his previous leadership role at U.S. Travel, Freeman’s strategic work led to the industry’s signature bipartisan legislative victory establishing the Travel Promotion Act of 2009 and creating Brand USA. Other accomplishments included leading the industry effort behind the creation of TSA PreCheck and establishing the Meetings Mean Business Coalition.
As CEO of the American Gaming Association from 2013 to 2018, he led an industry-wide campaign to legalize sports betting and expanded the organization’s membership to include tribal gaming entities. As CEO of the Consumer Brands Association, he galvanized industry support behind a transformation strategy: Defining a new brand identity, growing membership, strengthening the organization’s leadership team and re-establishing the association as a Washington, D.C. powerhouse.
Freeman succeeds Roger Dow, who is stepping down following a 17-year tenure as leader of the organization.
A native of Port Washington, Wisconsin, Freeman is a graduate of the University of California, Berkeley. The nationwide search to identify the association’s next president and CEO was guided by a nine-member search committee representative of core segments of the travel industry, led by Christine Duffy, national chair of the U.S. Travel Association and president of Carnival Cruise Line, and supported by Heidrick & Struggles.
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